França, Franklin Pedro; Gurgel, Angelo Costa
May 2012
Brazilian Review of Economics & Agribusiness / Revista de Econom;mai-ago2012, Vol. 10 Issue 2, p131
Academic Journal
The study estimates the impacts of climate change policies that may be adopted by US, European Union (EU) and Brazil in a time frame of 20 years. We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, built to project greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and simulate policies to reduce such emissions. The results suggest the necessity to a broader global participation and cooperation to stabilize emissions and reduce the risks of climate change. The climate policies generate welfare costs of 0,7% in the US and 0,4% in the EU in 2030 from emission cuts of 25% relative to 2005 GHG emissions. Brazil welfare losses amount 0,3% in 2030 if it does not applies climate policies but faces carbon tax board adjustments from those developed nations. Such trade barriers are not efficient in avoiding emission leakages and the loss of competitiveness. If Brazil imposes emission cuts, the welfare costs may reach 2,4% in 2030, what suggests fewer possibilities to adopt low carbon technologies and to substitute fossil fuel energy by renewable ones. The reduction in emissions from deforestation has low mitigation costs, while the sectorial cuts in emissions are much less cost-effective than other strategies, as a national carbon market. The economic sectors related to the production and high consumption of fossil fuels as also the agricultural sectors faces higher losses by the domestic climate policy. The large mitigation potential from biofuels in Brazil is confirmed by the study, although such potential does not avoid the decrease in the activity level of the transportation sector.


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