TITLE

Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

AUTHOR(S)
Collins, W. J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.
PUB. DATE
March 2013
SOURCE
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics;2013, Vol. 13 Issue 5, p2471
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.
ACCESSION #
87634649

 

Related Articles

  • Climate change: All in the timing. Hatfield-Dodds, Steve // Nature;1/3/2013, Vol. 493 Issue 7430, p35 

    The article examines the impact of the timing of emission reduction on the probability of increasing limiting temperatures to two degrees Celsius. It cites five major uncertainties that influence the chance of limiting global temperatures to different levels which include the deployment of...

  • A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century. Knutti, R.; Allen, M. R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gregory, J. M.; Hegerl, G. C.; Meehl, G. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Murphy, J. M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Raper, S. C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Stott, P. A.; Teng, H.; Wigley, T. M. L. // Journal of Climate;Jun2008, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p2651 

    Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on...

  • No Doubt About Climate Change and Its Implications for Water Suppliers. Cromwell III, John E.; Smith, Joel B.; Raucher, Robert S. // Journal: American Water Works Association;Sep2007, Vol. 99 Issue 9, p112 

    The article reports that the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPPC) has removed doubts about the implications of climate change for water suppliers. It is stated that the role of the IPPC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis for the risk of human...

  • A Multimodel Update on the Detection and Attribution of Global Surface Warming. Stone, Dáithí A.; Allen, Myles R.; Stott, Peter A. // Journal of Climate;Feb2007, Vol. 20 Issue 3, p517 

    This paper presents an update on the detection and attribution of global annual mean surface air temperature changes, using recently developed climate models. In particular, it applies a new methodology that permits the inclusion of many more general circulation models (GCMs) into the analysis,...

  • A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe. Langner, J.; Engardt, M.; Baklanov, A.; Christensen, J. H.; Gauss, M.; Geels, C.; Hedegaard, G. B.; Nuterman, R.; Simpson, D.; Soares, J.; Sofiev, M.; Wind, P.; Zakey, A. // Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions;2012, Vol. 12 Issue 2, p4901 

    The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM) driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic...

  • 'Alternative futures' of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models. Wolski, P.; Murray-Hudson, M. // Water SA;Oct2008, Vol. 34 Issue 5, p605 

    The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and...

  • Interactive comment on "Surface thermal perturbations of the recent past at low latitudes - inferences based on borehole temperature data from Eastern Brazil" by V. M. Hamza et al. Hamza, V. M. // Climate of the Past Discussions;2007 Supplement, Vol. 3, pS328 

    The article presents a response by V. M. Hamza et al. to a comment on their paper "Surface Thermal Perturbations of the Recent Past at Low Latitudes - Inferences Based on Borehole Temperature Data From Eastern Brazil" that was published in previous issue of the journal. The authors revised the...

  • Is the Weather Getting Worse?  // Weekly Reader News - Edition 3;9/12/2003, Vol. 73 Issue 3, p3 

    Focuses on the effect of global warming on the world's weather. Facts about global warming; Cause of global warming.

  • Inbox. Fehrenbach, Pete // Waste News;5/8/2006, Vol. 12 Issue 1, p30 

    The article presents information on the findings of a study issued on May 2, 2006 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The study found that there was a general consensus among scientists on the issue of global warming. The study resolves a longstanding scientific dispute regarding global...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics