TITLE

Forecasts covering one month using a cut cell model

AUTHOR(S)
Steppeler, J.; Park, S.-H.; Dobler, A.
PUB. DATE
January 2013
SOURCE
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions;2013, Vol. 6 Issue 1, p625
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the impact and potential use of the cut cell vertical discretisation for forecasts of 5 days and climate simulations. A first indication of the usefulness of this new method is obtained by a set of five-day forecasts, covering January 1989 by forecasts. The model area was chosen to include much of Asia, the Himalayas and Australia. The cut cell model LMZ provides a much more accurate representation of mountains on model forecasts than the terrain following coordinate used for comparison. Therefore we are in particular interested in potential forecast improvements in the target area downwind of the Himalaya, over South East China, Korea and Japan. The LMZ has been tested so far extensively for one-day forecasts on an European area. Following indications of a reduced temperature error for the short forecasts, this paper investigates the model error for five days in an area influenced by strong orography. The forecasts indicated a strong impact of the cut cell discretisation on forecast quality. The cut cell model is available only of an older (2003) Version of the model LM. It was compared using a control model differing by the use of the terrain following coordinate only. The cut cell model improved the precipitation forecasts of this old control model everywhere by a large margin. An improved version of the terrain following model LM has been developed since then under the name CLM. The CLM has been used and tested in all climates, while the LM was used for small areas in higher latitudes. The precipitation forecasts of cut cell model were compared also to the CLM. As the cut cell model LMZ did not incorporate the developments for CLM since 2003, the precipitation forecast of the CLM was not improved in all aspects. However, for the target area downstream of the Himalaya, the cut cell model improved the prediction of the monthly precipitation forecast even in comparison with the modern model version CLM considerably. The cut cell discretisation seems to improve in particular the localisation of precipitation, while the improvements leading from LM to CLM had a positive effect mainly on amplitude.
ACCESSION #
87613482

 

Related Articles

  • Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model. Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen // Climate Dynamics;Oct2014, Vol. 43 Issue 7/8, p1883 

    In early summer (May-June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC...

  • Evidence for Enhanced Land-Atmosphere Feedback in a Warming Climate. Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Cash, Benjamin A.; Kinter, James L.; Stan, Cristiana; Jung, Thomas; Marx, Lawrence; Towers, Peter; Wedi, Nils; Adams, Jennifer M.; Altshuler, Eric L.; Huang, Bohua; Jin, Emilia K.; Manganello, Julia // Journal of Hydrometeorology;Jun2012, Vol. 13 Issue 3, p981 

    Global simulations have been conducted with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational model run at T1279 resolution for multiple decades representing climate from the late twentieth and late twenty-first centuries. Changes in key components of the water cycle are...

  • Regional Interdependency of Precipitation Indices across Denmark in Two Ensembles of High-Resolution RCMs. Sunyer, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten // Journal of Climate;Oct2013, Vol. 26 Issue 20, p7912 

    Outputs from climate models are the primary data source in climate change impact studies. However, their interpretation is not straightforward. In recent years, several methods have been developed in order to quantify the uncertainty in climate projections. One of the common assumptions in...

  • Warm Season Rainfall Variability over the U.S. Great Plains in Observations, NCEP and ERA-40 Reanalyses, and NCAR and NASA Atmospheric Model Simulations. Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo; Nigam, Sumant // Journal of Climate;Jun2005, Vol. 18 Issue 11, p1808 

    Interannual variability of Great Plains precipitation in the warm season months is analyzed using gridded observations, satellite-based precipitation estimates, NCEP reanalysis data and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data, and the...

  • Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia. Dubrovsky, M.; Svoboda, M. D.; Trnka, M.; Hayes, M. J.; Wilhite, D. A.; Zalud, Z.; Hlavinka, P. // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2009, Vol. 96 Issue 1/2, p155 

    The common versions (referred to as self-calibrated here) of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are calibrated and then applied to the same weather series. Therefore, the distribution of the index values is about the same for any weather...

  • Preface to CFSv2 topical collection. Huang, Jin; Mariotti, Annarita; Kinter, Jim; Kumar, Arun // Climate Dynamics;Oct2014, Vol. 43 Issue 7/8, p2309 

    No abstract available.

  • Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in NARCCAP Simulations. KAWAZOE, SHO; GUTOWSKI JR., WILLIAM J. // Journal of Hydrometeorology;Aug2013, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p1212 

    The authors analyze the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program's ensemble of climate models to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, com-paring simulations that used observation-based boundary conditions with observations. The...

  • Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations. KAWAZOE, SHO; GUTOWSKI JR., WILLIAM J. // Journal of Hydrometeorology;Aug2013, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p1228 

    The authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper...

  • CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States. Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Pan, Ming // Journal of Climate;Jul2013, Vol. 26 Issue 13, p4828 

    There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and its previous...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics