TITLE

Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments

AUTHOR(S)
Lenton, Timothy; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos
PUB. DATE
March 2013
SOURCE
Climatic Change;Mar2013, Vol. 117 Issue 3, p585
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
There is currently a huge gulf between natural scientists' understanding of climate tipping points and economists' representations of climate catastrophes in integrated assessment models (IAMs). In particular, there are multiple potential tipping points and they are not all low-probability events; at least one has a significant probability of being passed this century under mid-range (2-4 °C) global warming, and they cannot all be ruled out at low (<2 °C) warming. In contrast, the dominant framing of climate catastrophes in IAMs, and in critiques of them, is that they are associated with high (> 4 °C) or very high (> 8 °C) global warming. This discrepancy could qualitatively alter the predictions of IAMs, including estimates of the social cost of carbon. To address this discrepancy and assess the economic impact of crossing different climate tipping points, we highlight a list of scientific points that should be considered, at least in a stylised form, in simplified IAMs. For nine different tipping events, the range of expected physical climate impacts is summarised and some suggestions are made for how they may translate into socio-economic impacts on particular sectors or regions. We also consider how passing climate tipping points could affect economic growth.
ACCESSION #
85986593

 

Related Articles

  • Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM. Reilly, John; Paltsev, Sergey; Strzepek, Ken; Selin, Noelle; Cai, Yongxia; Nam, Kyung-Min; Monier, Erwan; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Scott, Jeffery; Webster, Mort; Sokolov, Andrei // Climatic Change;Mar2013, Vol. 117 Issue 3, p561 

    We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth's physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of...

  • ASPEKTY EPIDEMIOLOGICZNE, KLINICZNE I SPOŁECZNE ALERGII POKARMOWEJ. CZĘŚĆ III. ASPEKTY SPOŁECZNE ALERGII POKARMOWEJ. Kaczmarski, Maciej; Korotkiewicz-Kaczmarska, Elżbieta; Bobrus-Chociej, Anna // Przeglad Pediatryczny;2009, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p139 

    Food allergy is a chronic disease of children, youths and adults. Considering its prevalence (4-8% in children and 2-3% in adults) together with other allergic diseases it belongs to the group of social diseases. The studies on the quality of life of patients and their families result in...

  • Human Resource Development Strategies: The Malaysian Scenario. Abdullah, Haslinda; Rose, Raduan Che; Kumar, Naresh // Journal of Social Sciences (15493652);2007, Vol. 3 Issue 4, p213 

    The socio-economic development of Malaysia is greatly influenced by human resources activities in both the private and public sectors. But the private sector, particularly the industrial sector is the key player for the country's economic growth. In acknowledging human resources importance in...

  • Labour Market, Where? Mihaela, Pivodă Roxana // Ovidius University Annals, Series Economic Sciences;2012, Vol. 12 Issue 1, p361 

    Creating conditions for employment factor to be active and creative is a socio-economic problem facing all countries today. Government management efficiency and quality of governance must be assessed in terms of results in the use of labor resources of the country. The complexity of the concept...

  • Climate change impacts: accounting for the human response. Oppenheimer, Michael // Climatic Change;Mar2013, Vol. 117 Issue 3, p439 

    The assessment of potential impacts of climate change is progressing from taxonomies and enumeration of the magnitude of potential direct effects on individuals, societies, species, and ecosystems according to a limited number of metrics toward a more integrated approach that also encompasses...

  • Two Approaches to Business Ethics. Jirásek, Jaroslav A. // Journal of Business Ethics;Nov2003 Part 1, Vol. 47 Issue 4, p343 

    Following an historical survey of ethical perspectives, the author focuses on an emerging "market ethics" dictating economic, cultural and legal principles and practices. He is especially concerned with the subsequent loss of human and social capital, and suggests the need for reviving those...

  • POPULATION.  // Teaching Science: The Journal of the Australian Science Teachers;Mar2010 Careers in Science, p2 

    The article discusses the issue of the increasing human population all over the world. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that the world population will rise from the current 6.5 billion to 9 billion in the next 40 years. The main concern in the rising...

  • Some thoughts on the value added from a new round of climate change damage estimates. Yohe, Gary; Hope, Chris // Climatic Change;Mar2013, Vol. 117 Issue 3, p451 

    This paper offers some thoughts on the value added of new economic estimates of climate change damages. We begin with a warning to beware of analyses that are so narrow that they miss a good deal of the important economic ramifications of the full suite of manifestations of climate change. Our...

  • Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO: why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002. Hope, Chris // Climatic Change;Mar2013, Vol. 117 Issue 3, p531 

    PAGE09 is an updated version of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model (Hope ). The default PAGE09 model gives a mean estimate of the social cost of CO (SCCO) of $106 per tonne of CO, compared to $81 from the PAGE2002 model used in the Stern review (Stern ). The increase is the net result of...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics