TITLE

Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model

AUTHOR(S)
Sayil, Nilgün
PUB. DATE
April 2013
SOURCE
Acta Geophysica;Apr2013, Vol. 61 Issue 2, p338
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordinates of 39°-42°N, 25°-32°E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log T = 0.26 M + 0.06 M-0.56 log M + 13.79 and M = 0.63 M − 0.07 M + 0.43 log M − 7.56. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0.53 and 0.35 for the first relation and 0.66 and 0.39 for the second relation, respectively. On the basis of these relations and using the occurrence time and magnitude of the last mainshocks in each seismogenic source, the probabilities of occurrence P(Δ t) of the next mainshocks during the next five decades and the magnitude of the expected mainshocks were determined.
ACCESSION #
85011614

 

Related Articles

  • Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Kodera, Yuki; Saitou, Jun; Hayashimoto, Naoki; Adachi, Shimpei; Morimoto, Masahiko; Nishimae, Yuji; Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki // Earth, Planets & Space;12/2/2016, Vol. 68 Issue 1, p1 

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Kumamoto earthquake sequence) is an extremely high-seismicity event that has been occurring across Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 (JST). The earthquake early warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued warnings for 19...

  • A Novel Method for Detection of Seismic Dual-Zones with Application to Earthquake Forecasting. Bali-Lashak, Aref; Zare, Mehdi; Andalib, Arash; Pourbadakhsh, Kazem; Radan, Yaser // Journal of Seismology & Earthquake Engineering;2012, Vol. 14 Issue 1, p1 

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach to prepare the forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes higher than a threshold level. This method can recognize the world's dual seismicity zones, where an earthquake in one zone acts as a precursor to other events in some other zone(s). To do so, we...

  • Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment. Kossobokov, Vladimir // Natural Hazards;Nov2013, Vol. 69 Issue 2, p1155 

    Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very...

  • Earthquake prediction. Farndon, John // Planet Earth (1-59084-469-6);2003, p13 

    Modern earthquake prediction methods detect minute distortions of the ground that indicated the rock is under stress. One way to predict earthquakes is to study past quakes. If there has been no earthquake in an earthquake zone for a while, there will be soon. Seismic gaps are places in...

  • The moment magnitude M and the energy magnitude M: common roots and differences. Bormann, Peter; Di Giacomo, Domenico // Journal of Seismology;Apr2011, Vol. 15 Issue 2, p411 

    Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales for moment magnitude M and energy magnitude M is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M and M calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the...

  • Tsunami hazard assessment of Indian coast. Roshan, A.; Basu, Prabir; Jangid, R. // Natural Hazards;Jun2016, Vol. 82 Issue 2, p733 

    The tsunami caused by the magnitude 9.1 Andaman-Sumatra earthquake in 2004 brought into limelight the vulnerability of Indian coast against the flooding hazard due to this natural phenomenon. The paper brings out the work carried out in relation to assessment of tsunami hazard along the Indian...

  • Tests of two time-dependent seismicity models based on interevent times of mainshocks and on seismic triggering in the Aegean area. Papazachos, B. C.; Karakaisis, G. F.; Papazachos, C. B.; Scordilis, E. M. // Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata;Mar2011, Vol. 52 Issue 1, p39 

    In the present work, the basic principles and recent developments of two intermediateterm prediction models are described. The first one is the Time and Magnitude Predictable regional model which is based on interevent times of strong (M>6.0) mainshocks while the second one is the...

  • Site-Specific Modeling of SH and P- SV Waves for Microzonation Study of Kolkata Metropolitan City, India. Vaccari, Franco; Walling, M.; Mohanty, William; Nath, Sankar; Verma, Akhilesh; Sengupta, A.; Panza, Giuliano // Pure & Applied Geophysics;Mar2011, Vol. 168 Issue 3/4, p479 

    Kolkata, one of the oldest cities of India, is situated over the thick alluvium of the Bengal Basin, where it lies at the boundary of the zone III and zone IV of the seismic zonation map of India. An example of the study of site effects of the metropolitan Kolkata is presented based on...

  • Long-term earthquake prediction in western Anatolia with the time- and magnitude-predictable model. Sayıl, Nilgün // Natural Hazards;Mar2013, Vol. 66 Issue 2, p809 

    Instrumental and historical data on mainshocks for 13 seismogenic sources in western Anatolia have been used to apply a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log T =...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics