TITLE

Emissions scenarios database and review of scenarios

AUTHOR(S)
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Victor, Nadejda; Morita, Tsuneyuki
PUB. DATE
March 1998
SOURCE
Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change;1998, Vol. 3 Issue 2-4, p95
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources andother scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gasemissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the rangefor projected population increase in the world, across the scenariosin the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about afactor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption varyby a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders ofmagnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forc
ACCESSION #
8434985

 

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