TITLE

Quantifying Uncertainty for Climate Change and Long-Range Forecasting Scenarios with Model Errors. Part I: Gaussian Models

AUTHOR(S)
Gershgorin, Boris; Majda, Andrew J.
PUB. DATE
July 2012
SOURCE
Journal of Climate;Jul2012, Vol. 25 Issue 13, p4523
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Information theory provides a concise systematic framework for measuring climate consistency and sensitivity for imperfect models. A suite of increasingly complex physically relevant linear Gaussian models with time periodic features mimicking the seasonal cycle is utilized to elucidate central issues that arise in contemporary climate science. These include the role of model error, the memory of initial conditions, and effects of coarse graining in producing short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts. In particular, this study demonstrates how relative entropy can be used to improve climate consistency of an overdamped imperfect model by inflating stochastic forcing. Moreover, the authors show that, in the considered models, by improving climate consistency, this simultaneously increases the predictive skill of an imperfect model in response to external perturbation, a property of crucial importance in the context of climate change. The three models range in complexity from a scalar time periodic model mimicking seasonal fluctuations in a mean jet to a spatially extended system of turbulent Rossby waves to, finally, the behavior of a turbulent tracer with a mean gradient with the background turbulent field velocity generated by the first two models. This last model mimics the global and regional behavior of turbulent passive tracers under various climate change scenarios. This detailed study provides important guidelines for extending these strategies to more complicated and non-Gaussian physical systems.
ACCESSION #
77633347

 

Related Articles

  • Challenging some tenets of Regional Climate Modelling. Laprise, R.; De Elía, R.; Caya, D.; Biner, S.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Diaconesco, E.; Leduc, M.; Alexandru, A.; Separovic, L. // Meteorology & Atmospheric Physics;May2008, Vol. 100 Issue 1-4, p3 

    Nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used for climate-change projections in order to achieve spatial resolutions that would be computationally prohibitive with coupled global climate models. RCMs are commonly thought to behave as a sort of sophisticated magnifying glass to...

  • Experimental Forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Coupled OAGCM. Jing-Jia Luo; Masson, Sebastien; Behera, Swadhin; Yamagata, Toshio // Journal of Climate;May2007, Vol. 20 Issue 10, p2178 

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has profound socioeconomic impacts on not only the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean but also various parts of the world. A forecast system is developed based on a relatively high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM with only sea surface temperature...

  • A Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Approach to Seasonal Prediction. Young-Mi Min; Kryjov, Vladimir N.; Chung-Kyu Park // Weather & Forecasting;Jun2009, Vol. 24 Issue 3, p812 

    A probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction system (PMME) has been developed to provide operational seasonal forecasts at the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC). This system is based on an uncalibrated multimodel ensemble, with model weights inversely...

  • A study on air-sea interaction on the simulated seasonal climate in an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Ham, Suryun; Hong, Song-You; Park, Suhee // Climate Dynamics;Mar2014, Vol. 42 Issue 5/6, p1175 

    This study investigates the effects of air-sea interaction upon simulated tropical climatology, focusing on the boreal summer mean precipitation and the embedded intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) signal. Both the daily coupling of ocean-atmosphere and the diurnal variation of sea surface...

  • Seasonal Variation of the Physical Properties of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds off the California Coast. Lin, Wuyin; Zhang, Minghua; Loeb, Norman G. // Journal of Climate;May2009, Vol. 22 Issue 10, p2624 

    Marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds can significantly regulate the sensitivity of climate models, yet they are currently poorly simulated. This study aims to characterize the seasonal variations of physical properties of these clouds and their associated processes by using multisatellite data....

  • An Examination of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Intensity Life Cycle within Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets. Schenkel, Benjamin A.; Hart, Robert E. // Journal of Climate;May2012, Vol. 25 Issue 10, p3453 

    The following study examines the position and intensity differences of tropical cyclones (TCs) among the Best-Track and five atmospheric reanalysis datasets to evaluate the degree to which reanalyses are appropriate for studying TCs. While significant differences are found in both reanalysis TC...

  • Two Time Scales for The Price Of One (Almost). Goddard, Lisa; Hurrell, James W.; Kirtman, Benjamin P.; Murphy, James; Stockdale, Timothy; Vera, Carolina // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;May2012, Vol. 93 Issue 5, p621 

    An essay is presented which discusses climate prediction using seasonal and decadal time scales. Topics include how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon drives seasonal climates, how decadal predictions rely heavily on weather forecasting systems, and how climate models are affected by...

  • Storm-Track Activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP3 Model Simulations. Chang, Edmund K. M.; Guo, Yanjuan; Xia, Xiaoming; Zheng, Minghua // Journal of Climate;Jan2013, Vol. 26 Issue 1, p246 

    The climatological storm-track activity simulated by 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models is compared to that in the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Nearly half of the models...

  • The Impact of the Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern on the Mediterranean Climate. Hatzaki, Maria; Flocas, Helena A.; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Maheras, Panagiotis // Journal of Climate;Feb2009, Vol. 22 Issue 4, p977 

    The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the eastern Mediterranean teleconnection pattern (EMP) on the present and future climate of the eastern Mediterranean during winter. For the present climate, daily precipitation and maximum and minimum surface temperature station data...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics