TITLE

Sensitivity of Holocene atmospheric CO2 and the modern carbon budget to early human land use: analyses with a process-based model

AUTHOR(S)
Stocker, B.; Strassmann, K.; Joos, F.
PUB. DATE
January 2010
SOURCE
Biogeosciences Discussions;2010, Vol. 7 Issue 1, p921
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
A Dynamic Global Vegetation model is used as part of a simplified Earth system model to simulate the impact of human land use on Holocene atmospheric CO2 and the contemporary carbon cycle. We show that suggested upward revisions of Holocene land use reconstructions imply a smaller contemporary terrestrial carbon sink and that early agricultural activities did only marginally contribute to the late Holocene CO2 rise of 20 ppm measured on ice cores. Scenarios are used to test the robustness of the results. Simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 due to land use are less than 1 ppm before 0 AD and 22 ppm by 2004 AD when prescribing the HYDE 3.1 land use reconstruction over the past 12 000 years. Cumulative emissions are with 50 GtC by 1850 and 177 GtC by 2004 AD comparable to earlier estimates. In scenario H2, agricultural area from HYDE 3.1 is scaled by a factor of two before 1700 AD, thereby taking into account evidence that land area used per person was higher before than during early industrialisation. Then, the contemporary terrestrial carbon sink, required to close the atmospheric CO2 budget, is reduced by 0.5 GtC yr-1. CO2 changes due to land use change exceed natural interannual variability only after 1000 AD and are less than 4 ppmv until 1850 AD. Simulated CO2 change remains small even in scenarios where average land use per person is unrealistically increased by a factor of 4 to 8 above published estimates. Our results falsify the hypothesis that humans are responsible for the late Holocene CO2 increase and that anthropogenic land use prevented a new ice age.
ACCESSION #
71739021

 

Related Articles

  • Land Use Change from Biofuels Derived from Forest Residue: A Case of Washington State. Brent, Daniel; Rabotyagov, Sergey // Economics Research International;2013, p1 

    Biofuel policy in the United States is transitioning away from corn towards second-generation biofuels in part because of the debate over environmental damages from indirect land use change. We combine a spatially explicit parcel level model for land use change in Washington State with...

  • Carbon dioxide and methane emissions of Swedish low‐order streams—a national estimate and lessons learnt from more than a decade of observations. Wallin, Marcus B.; Campeau, Audrey; Audet, Joachim; Bastviken, David; Bishop, Kevin; Kokic, Jovana; Laudon, Hjalmar; Lundin, Erik; Löfgren, Stefan; Natchimuthu, Sivakiruthika; Sobek, Sebastian; Teutschbein, Claudia; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Grabs, Thomas // Limnology & Oceanography Letters;Jun2018, Vol. 3 Issue 3, p156 

    Low‐order streams are suggested to dominate the atmospheric CO2 source of all inland waters. Yet, many large‐scale stream estimates suffer from methods not designed for gas emission determination and rarely include other greenhouse gases such as CH4. Here, we present a compilation of...

  • Carbon Emissions Accelerate.  // Australasian Science;Jan/Feb2007, Vol. 28 Issue 1, p10 

    The article discusses the findings of a study conducted by the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research regarding the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Study data revealed that the growth rate of carbon dioxide...

  • Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century. Wu, S.; Mickley, L. J.; Kaplan, J. O.; Jacob, D. J. // Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions;2011, Vol. 11 Issue 5, p15469 

    The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use...

  • The Ice Story.  // News 'n' More;Feb2012, Vol. 5 Issue 2, p21 

    The article provides information on the Ice Age, wherein the ice crept on until it covered almost all of the U.S. and Europe. The last Ice Age ended around 11,500 years ago. According to experts, the next Ice Age will be delayed because the carbon emissions are very high. The length of years...

  • Fighting deforestation in Bangladesh. Peios, Joanna; Amodeo, Christian // Geographical (Campion Interactive Publishing);Mar2004, Vol. 76 Issue 3, p14 

    Deals with a program implemented by the Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG) in Bangladesh which aims to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by using energy-efficient stoves made from local materials. Amount of greenhouse-gas emissions expected to be reduce by the program; Remarks from...

  • Photochemical mineralisation in a humic boreal lake: temporal variability and contribution to carbon dioxide production. Groeneveld, M. M.; Tranvik, L. J.; Koehler, B. // Biogeosciences Discussions;2015, Vol. 12 Issue 20, p17125 

    Sunlight induces photochemical mineralisation of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in inland waters, resulting in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. Photochemical rate modelling is used to determine sunlight-induced CO2 emissions on...

  • Continental-scale enrichment of atmospheric 14CO2 from the nuclear power industry: potential impact on the estimation of fossil fuel-derived CO2. Graven, H. D.; Gruber, N. // Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics;2011, Vol. 11 Issue 23, p12339 

    The 14C-free fossil carbon added to atmospheric CO2 by combustion dilutes the atmospheric 14C/C ratio (Δ14C), potentially providing a means to verify fossil CO2 emissions calculated using economic inventories. However, sources of 14C from nuclear power generation and spent fuel reprocessing...

  • The Earth is halfway to dangerous climate change, scientists say.  // ENDS (Environmental Data Services);May2009, Issue 412, p24 

    The article discusses a report published in "Nature" that said limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to avoid drastic climate change is risky and recommends using a cumulative emissions budget of one trillion tonnes of carbon as a safer approach. This would reportedly cover emissions from...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics