Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System -- Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model

Kitous, Alban; Criqui, Patrick; Bellevrat, Elie; Chateau, Bertrand
January 2010
Energy Journal;Jan2010 Special Issue, Vol. 31, p49
Academic Journal
This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would continue rising, driven by the coal consumed in the power production which roughly follows the GDP growth; the scarcity of oil resources would trigger the development of alternative vehicles. Conversely, a 400 ppm CO2 eq stabilization case would lead to drastic changes in supply (renewables - biomass), transformation (carbon capture and storage) and demand (low energy technologies). It transpires that the contribution to the reduction effort of low stabilization compared to a baseline scenario would be similar for final consumption (36% efficiency and 10% fuel mix) and for the power sector (25% renewables, 25% CCS, 4% nuclear). In addition this low emission scenario would alleviate the tensions on fossil energy markets.


Related Articles

  • RESOLVING THE BIOFUELS DILEMMA. Werner, Carol // Solar Today;Jul/Aug2008, Vol. 22 Issue 4, p38 

    The article generates considerable doubt and controversy regarding the true benefits of biofuels. It identifies situations in which certain biofuels may produce greater greenhouse gas emissions than conventional petroleum fuels. It mentions that when produced using unsustainable practices,...

  • An algebraic targeting approach for effective utilization of biomass in combined heat and power systems through process integration. Mohan, Tanya; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M. // Clean Technologies & Environmental Policy;Feb2007, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p13 

    Green house gases (GHGs) pose some of the most profound impact on the environment. One viable alternative for reducing GHGs is the utilization of biomass to generate heat and power for processing facilities. The purpose of this paper is to address the utilization of biowaste or biomass source in...

  • A Road Through The Pasture To Renewable Fuel.  // In Business;Sep/Oct2005, Vol. 27 Issue 5, p14 

    This article discusses issues related to renewable power. In new sourcebook for renewable power is described as "no cow-pie in the sky" solution, and California has potential to produce the equivalent of 150 million gallons of gasoline. There are 8.5 million cows in the U.S., each producing...

  • Future in Switchgrass.  // Solar Today;Mar/Apr2008, Vol. 22 Issue 2, p63 

    The article discusses the results of a five-year study on switchgrass. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln's researchers reported that the results of their five-year study show that switchgrass grown for biofuel production produced 540 percent more energy than is required to grow, harvest and...

  • The case for extended nuclear reactor operation. Szilard, R.; Planchon, P.; Busby, J. // JOM: The Journal of The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society (TM;Jul2009, Vol. 61 Issue 7, p24 

    Greenhouse gas emission is a mounting problem that threatens the future production of electricity from both coal and natural gas. In 2006, 70% of domestic electricity generation relied upon fossil fuels. Projections by the Energy Information Agency1 show U.S. demand for electricity increasing...

  • Biomass District Energy Trigeneration Systems: Emissions Reduction and Financial Impact. Rentizelas, A.; Tolis, A.; Tatsiopoulos, I. // Water, Air & Soil Pollution: Focus;Jan2009, Vol. 9 Issue 1/2, p139 

    Biomass cogeneration is widely used for district heating applications in central and northern Europe. Biomass trigeneration on the other hand, constitutes an innovative renewable energy application. In this work, an approved United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change baseline...

  • THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE.  // Parliamentarian;2014, Vol. 95 Issue 3, p198 

    The article offers information on the Working Group Reports released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It states that the assessment reports published by the IPCC covers various topics including climate science, the global impact of climate change, and the increase of...

  • Clearing the air about biomass carbon neutrality. Miner, Reid // Paper 360;Mar2007, Vol. 2 Issue 3, p12 

    The article offers information on biomass carbon neutrality. The term is usually used to describe the efforts of companies to become carbon neutral by completely offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions. It cites the difference between biomass carbon and fossil fuel carbon. It emphasizes the...

  • Biofuel - an environment friendly energy source. Anjum, Shakeel A.; Ehsanullah; Nawaz, Mohsin; Ashraf, Umair // Technology Times;7/21/2014, Vol. 5 Issue 30, p2 

    The article focuses on the use of biofuel as a reliable source of energy which generates lower level of greenhouse gases compared to fossil fuel sources.


Read the Article

Other Topics