Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East

Evans, Jason P.
January 2010
Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2010, Vol. 99 Issue 3/4, p389
Academic Journal
In this study, the ability of a regional climate model, based on MM5, to simulate the climate of the Middle East at the beginning of the twenty-first century is assessed. The model is then used to simulate the changes due to global warming over the twenty-first century. The regional climate model displays a negative bias in temperature throughout the year and over most of the domain. It does a good job of simulating the precipitation for most of the domain, though it performs relatively poorly over the southeast Black Sea and southwest Caspian Sea. Using boundary conditions obtained from CCSM3, the model was run for the first and last 5 years of the twenty-first century. The results show widespread warming, with a maximum of ~10 K in interior Iran during summer. It also found some cooling in the southeast Black Sea region during spring and summer that is related to increases in snowfall in the region, a longer snowmelt season, and generally higher soil moisture and latent heating through the summer. The results also show widespread decreases in precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean and Turkey. Precipitation increases were found over the southeast Black Sea, southwest Caspian Sea, and Zagros mountain regions during all seasons except summer, while the Saudi desert region receives increases during summer and autumn. Changes in the dominant precipitation-triggering mechanisms were also investigated. The general trend in the dominant mechanism reflects a change away from the direct dependence on storm tracks and towards greater precipitation triggering by upslope flow of moist air masses. The increase in precipitation in the Saudi desert region is triggered by changes in atmospheric stability brought about by the intrusion of the intertropical convergence zone into the southernmost portion of the domain.


Related Articles

  • Increasing summer rainfall in arid eastern-Central Asia over the past 8500 years. Bing Hong; Gasse, Françoise; Uchida, Masao; Yetang Hong; Xuetian Leng; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Ning An; Yongxuan Zhu; Yu Wang // Scientific Reports;6/13/2014, p1 

    A detailed and well-dated proxy record of summer rainfall variation in arid Central Asia is lacking. Here, we report a long-term, high resolution record of summer rainfall extracted from a peat bog in arid eastern-Central Asia (AECA). The record indicates a slowly but steadily increasing trend...

  • The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism. Bengtsson, Lennart; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Johannessen, Ola M. // Journal of Climate;Oct2004, Vol. 17 Issue 20, p4045 

    The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to...

  • Response of the overturning circulation to high-latitude fresh-water perturbations in the North Atlantic. Cheng, W.; Rhines, P. B. // Climate Dynamics;Apr2004, Vol. 22 Issue 4, p359 

    Studies have suggested that sea-ice cover east and west of Greenland fluctuates out-of phase as a part of the Atlantic decadal climate variability, and greater changes are possible under global warming conditions. In this study, the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation...

  • Words of warming. Middleton, Nick // Geographical (Campion Interactive Publishing);Oct99, Vol. 71 Issue 10, p60 

    Explains why the world is hotting up. Process of greenhouse effect; Importance of the greenhouse gases; Human intervention on the concentration of greenhouse gases.

  • GLOBAL WARMING.  // World Almanac for Kids;2003, p72 

    Many scientists believe that gases in the air are causing Earth's climate to gradually become warmer. This is called global warming. The hottest year on record was 1998. The second hottest was 2001. The third hottest was 1997, and 1999 was the sixth hottest. If the climate becomes too warm,...

  • Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect.  // World Almanac for Kids;1997, p93 

    This article explains the greenhouse effect and global warming. Many scientists believe that gases in the air are causing Earth's climate to become warmer. This is called global warming. In Earth's atmosphere there are tiny amounts of gases called greenhouse gases. These gases let the rays of...

  • Letting the Facts Speak For Themselves. Wexler, Mark // National Wildlife (World Edition);Apr/May2005, Vol. 43 Issue 3, p6 

    Introduces a series of articles that gather evidence supporting the reality of global warming and its negative impact on wildlife and the environment.

  • Global Environmental Concepts.  // Greece Country Review;2010, p142 

    The article offers information on the different global environmental concepts including the greenhouse effect, the relationship between global warming and greenhouse gases and international policy development in regard to global warming.

  • What Global Warming? Thompson, Dick // Time International (South Pacific Edition);06/21/1999, Issue 25, p62 

    Focuses on the effects of a June 1999 heat wave in the United States and the release of environmental studies on the public's interest in curing global warming. Details of a survey by the American Geophysical Union finding that Americans are less concerned about global warming; Reasons,...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics