TITLE

Morality Principles for Risk Modelling: Needs and Links with the Origins of Plausible Inference

AUTHOR(S)
Solana-Ortega, Alberto; Solana, Vicente
PUB. DATE
December 2009
SOURCE
AIP Conference Proceedings;12/8/2009, Vol. 1193 Issue 1, p161
SOURCE TYPE
Conference Proceeding
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
In comparison with the foundations of probability calculus, the inescapable and controversial issue of how to assign probabilities has only recently become a matter of formal study. The introduction of information as a technical concept was a milestone, but the most promising entropic assignment methods still face unsolved difficulties, manifesting the incompleteness of plausible inference theory. In this paper we examine the situation faced by risk analysts in the critical field of extreme events modelling, where the former difficulties are especially visible, due to scarcity of observational data, the large impact of these phenomena and the obligation to assume professional responsibilities. To respond to the claim for a sound framework to deal with extremes, we propose a metafoundational approach to inference, based on a canon of extramathematical requirements. We highlight their strong moral content, and show how this emphasis in morality, far from being new, is connected with the historic origins of plausible inference. Special attention is paid to the contributions of Caramuel, a contemporary of Pascal, unfortunately ignored in the usual mathematical accounts of probability.
ACCESSION #
45552850

 

Related Articles

  • Witnessed k-Distance. Guibas, Leonidas; Morozov, Dmitriy; Mérigot, Quentin // Discrete & Computational Geometry;Jan2013, Vol. 49 Issue 1, p22 

    Distance functions to compact sets play a central role in several areas of computational geometry. Methods that rely on them are robust to the perturbations of the data by the Hausdorff noise, but fail in the presence of outliers. The recently introduced distance to a measure offers a solution...

  • Proper and paradigmatic metonymy as a lens for characterizing student conceptions of distributions and sampling. Noll, Jennifer; Hancock, Stacey // Educational Studies in Mathematics;Mar2015, Vol. 88 Issue 3, p361 

    This research investigates what students' use of statistical language can tell us about their conceptions of distribution and sampling in relation to informal inference. Prior research documents students' challenges in understanding ideas of distribution and sampling as tools for making informal...

  • THE ROLE OF REGRET IN RATIONAL DECISION MAKING. JurÁsovÁ, Kinga; Špajdel, Marián // Studia Psychologica;2011, Vol. 53 Issue 2, p169 

    Rational decision making can be defined as a tendency to make a normative decision, while incorporating post-choice predicted emotions into the decision making process. The study investigates the role of anticipated and experienced regret in rational decision making as well as the role of...

  • Fales’s Defense of the Given and Requirements for Being a Reason. Lee, Byeong D. // Philosophia;Dec2013, Vol. 41 Issue 4, p1217 

    Fales defends the doctrine of the given against the Sellarsian dilemma. On his view, sensory experiences, to which one has direct access, can justify basic beliefs. He upholds this view by way of defending an expansive conception of inference, according to which a broadly inferential relation...

  • FUZZY RISK VERSUS PROBABILISTIC RISK IN PROJECT ECONOMICS. Iloiu, Mirela; Iloiu, Sorin; Csiminga, Diana; Mangu, Sorin // Annals of DAAAM & Proceedings;Jan2011, p1289 

    In this paper we presented the probabilistic risk analysis of the investment projects and we offered a better, more precise alternative - fuzzy risk analysis. This approach, although is analogous to probability theory, can be carried out under weaker assumption and used when limited...

  • Significance testing as perverse probabilistic reasoning. Westover, M. Brandon; Westover, Kenneth D.; Bianchi, Matt T. // BMC Medicine;2011, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p20 

    Truth claims in the medical literature rely heavily on statistical significance testing. Unfortunately, most physicians misunderstand the underlying probabilistic logic of significance tests and consequently often misinterpret their results. This near-universal misunderstanding is highlighted by...

  • Fault reconnaissance agent for sensor networks. Shakshuki, Elhadi M.; Xinyu Xing; Sheltami, Tarek R. // Mobile Information Systems;2010, Vol. 6 Issue 3, p229 

    One of the key prerequisite for a scalable, effective and efficient sensor network is the utilization of low-cost, low-overhead and high-resilient fault-inference techniques. To this end, we propose an intelligent agent system with a problem solving capability to address the issue of fault...

  • Priors in Quantum Bayesian Inference. Fuchs, Christopher A.; Schack, Rüdiger // AIP Conference Proceedings;3/10/2009, Vol. 1101 Issue 1, p255 

    In quantum Bayesian inference problems, any conclusions drawn from a finite number of measurements depend not only on the outcomes of the measurements but also on a prior. Here we show that, in general, the prior remains important even in the limit of an infinite number of measurements. We...

  • Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics. Grandy, Jr., W. T. // AIP Conference Proceedings;12/8/2009, Vol. 1193 Issue 1, p97 

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics