Assessing the Impact of First-Time Imprisonment on Offenders’ Subsequent Criminal Career Development: A Matched Samples Comparison

Nieuwbeerta, Paul; Nagin, Daniel; Blokland, Arjan
September 2009
Journal of Quantitative Criminology;Sep2009, Vol. 25 Issue 3, p227
Academic Journal
Using data from the Netherlands-based Criminal Career and Life-course Study the effect of first-time imprisonment between age 18–38 on the conviction rates in the 3 years immediately following the year of the imprisonment was examined. Unadjusted comparisons of those imprisoned and those not imprisoned will be biased because imprisonment is not meted out randomly. Selection processes will tend to make the imprisoned group disproportionately crime prone compared to the not imprisoned group. In this study group-based trajectory modeling was combined with risk set matching to balance a variety of measurable indicators of criminal propensity. Findings indicate that first-time imprisonment is associated with an increase in criminal activity in the 3 years following release. The effect of imprisonment is similar across offence types.


Related Articles

  • America: All locked up. Cannon, Carl M. // National Journal;8/15/98, Vol. 30 Issue 33, p1906 

    Criticizes the fairness of incarceration law in the United States. Positive effect of lengthy incarceration sentence on crime rates; Social implications of the national imprisonment policy; Evaluation on the effectiveness of increased incarceration punishment as a crime deterrent. INSETS:...

  • Incentivizing Responses to Self-report Questions in Perceptual Deterrence Studies: An Investigation of the Validity of Deterrence Theory Using Bayesian Truth Serum. Loughran, Thomas; Paternoster, Ray; Thomas, Kyle // Journal of Quantitative Criminology;Dec2014, Vol. 30 Issue 4, p677 

    Objective: Criminological researchers want people to reveal considerable private information when utilizing self-report surveys, such as involvement in crime, subjective attitudes and expectations, and probability judgments. Some of this private information is easily accessible for subjects and...

  • ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF INCARCERATION ON SUBSEQUENT OFFENDING TRAJECTORIES: DETERRENT, CRIMINOGENIC, OR NULL EFFECT? Bhati, Avinash Singh; Piquero, Alex R. // Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology;Fall2007, Vol. 98 Issue 1, p207 

    Despite record levels of incarceration and much discussion about the role that incarceration plays in influencing criminal activity, there does not yet exist a sound knowledge base about the extent to which incarceration exhibits a criminogenic, deterrent, or null effect on subsequent individual...

  • When probation becomes more dreaded than prison. Petersilia, Joan // Federal Probation;Mar1990, Vol. 54 Issue 1, p23 

    Assesses whether community sanctions are punitive enough to convince the public that the `punishment fit the crime.' Assumptions about punishment; Diminishing punitive power of imprisonment; Reasons why offenders would choose imprisonment over intensive supervision programs (ISP); Importance of...

  • Why Central and Eastern European Countries Have High Imprisonment Rates. Krajewski, Krzystof // Criminology in Europe;2010, Vol. 9 Issue 3, p3 

    The article offers information on the reasons behind the high imprisonment rates in Central and Eastern Europe since the 1980s. It highlights some potential factors which triggered the trend including high income inequality, low levels of spending and legitimacy, and punishment policies in the...

  • NEW EVIDENCE ON THE EFFICACY OF SANCTIONS AS A DETERRENT TO HOMICIDE. Black, Theodore; Orsagh, Thomas // Social Science Quarterly (University of Texas Press);Mar1978, Vol. 58 Issue 4, p616 

    The article focuses on the effects of punishment on the general crime rate and the effects of capital punishment on homicide. In the neoclassical model, an individual's behavior is determined by his evaluation of the utilities associated with different possible activities. There are three...

  • PERCEIVED RISK AND DETERRENCE: METHODOLOGICAL ARTIFACTS IN PERCEPTUAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH. Paternoster, Raymond; Saltzman, Linda E.; Chiricos, Theodore G.; Waldo, Gordon P. // Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology;Fall1982, Vol. 73 Issue 3, p1238 

    The article explores the three methodological problems affecting researches on perceptual deterrence literature in the U.S. The problems that were being analyzed using data from a panel study of college students include variations in measurement levels of perceive risk, types of punishment being...

  • Crime Prevention in Australia: Beyond ‘What Works?’. Cherney, Adrian; Sutton, Adam // Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology (Australian Acad;Apr2007, Vol. 40 Issue 1, p65 

    Recent decades have seen governments around Australia launch crime prevention policies to much fanfare. Often, however, achievements have fallen well short of expectations.A key problem is that too many attempts to develop and implement crime prevention have not thought through and articulated...

  • Cartel deterrence: The search for evidence and argument. Harding, Christopher // Antitrust Bulletin;Summer2011, Vol. 56 Issue 2, p345 

    The article discusses the difficulty in measuring the efficacy of cartel deterrence policies and sanctions. The author begins by examining the reasons why deterrence has become central to the rhetoric surrounding cartel regulation and economic competition law. Difficulties identifying efficacy...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics