Atominės elektrinės saugą veikiančių ekstremalių vėjų tikimybinis vertinimas

Alzbutas, Robertas; Kupčiūnienė, Kristina; Lysak, Svetlana
March 2009
Energetika;2009, Issue 1, p20
Academic Journal
The simulation of extreme external events likely influencing the safety of a nuclear power plant has an important significance for evaluating their risk and for avoiding damages of the systems important for the safety. The probability of such events is estimated using statistical data and probabilistic models. Additionally, the methodology being developed at the Lithuanian Energy Institute is used. It includes risk analysis and sensitivity analysis. This methodology is primarily based on the probabilistic modelling and the so-called best estimate calculation along with the analysis of uncertainty. The paper presents the general methodology of selection and analysis of extreme external events. As an example of an extreme external event probabilistic analysis, extreme wind is examined in more detail. This event can do enormous damage not only to wind power plants, but also to other not wind-related constructions. To estimate the influence of extreme wind on the safety of a nuclear power plant, first of all the probabilistic analysis of the event occurrence is performed: statistical data are assembled and analysed, a probabilistic model is built, and the modelling data uncertainty and sensitivity are analysed.


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