TITLE

Changes in Interannual Variability and Decadal Potential Predictability under Global Warming

AUTHOR(S)
Boer, G. J.
PUB. DATE
June 2009
SOURCE
Journal of Climate;Jun2009, Vol. 22 Issue 11, p3098
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Global warming will result in changes in mean temperature and precipitation distributions and is also expected to affect interannual and longer time-scale internally generated variability as a consequence of changes in climate processes and feedbacks. Multimodel estimates of changes in the variability of annual mean temperature and precipitation and in the variability of decadal potential predictability are investigated based on the collection of coupled climate model simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) data archive. Pooled, multimodel standard deviations of annual mean temperature and precipitation for the unforced preindustrial control climates of the models show good resemblance to observation-based estimates. The internally generated variability of the unforced climate is compared with that of the warmer conditions for simulations with the B1 and A1B climate change scenarios with forcing stabilized at year 2100 values. The standard deviation of annual mean temperature generally decreases with global warming at extratropical latitudes, with the largest percentage decreases over the oceans and largest percentage increases in the tropics and subtropics, although the magnitudes of these increases are smaller. The standard deviation of annual mean precipitation increases almost everywhere, with larger increases in the tropics. Changes are generally larger for the more strongly forced, warmer A1B scenario than for the B1 scenario. The characterization of decadal variability changes in terms of potential predictability stems from the growing interest in producing forecasts for the next decade or several decades. The potential predictability identifies that fraction of the long time-scale variability that is, at least potentially and with enough information, predictable on decadal time scales. There is a general decrease in the internally generated decadal variability of temperature and its potential predictability in the warmer world. The decrease tends to be largest where the decadal potential predictability of the unforced control climate is largest over the high-latitude oceans. The potential predictability of precipitation is small to begin with and generally decreases further. Therefore, there is a potential decrease in the decadal potential predictability of the internally generated component in a warmer world.
ACCESSION #
42981374

 

Related Articles

  • The Ocean’s Role in Continental Climate Variability and Change. Dommenget, Dietmar // Journal of Climate;Sep2009, Vol. 22 Issue 18, p4939 

    A characteristic feature of global warming is the land–sea contrast, with stronger warming over land than over oceans. Recent studies find that this land–sea contrast also exists in equilibrium global change scenarios, and it is caused by differences in the availability of surface...

  • Edmonton, global hot spot. Parker, Shafer // Report / Newsmagazine (Alberta Edition);01/24/2000, Vol. 26 Issue 46, p42 

    Focuses on global warming and scientists who believe there is no evidence that greenhouse gases cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere. The Oregon Global Warming Petition initiated by Dr. Frederick Seitz, past-president of the National Academy of Scientists; Disaster predictions;...

  • THE WHOLE PICTURE. N. G. // BioCycle;Jan2007, Vol. 48 Issue 1, p4 

    The author reflects on the significance of compost production to global climatic changes specifically global warming. He refers to the argument of a farm owner from Massachusetts which underscores the significant impact of compost production on climate change. Composting is a process which emits...

  • Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. Findell, Kirsten L.; Pitman, Andrew J.; England, Matthew H.; Pegion, Philip J. // Journal of Climate;Jun2009, Vol. 22 Issue 12, p3248 

    The atmospheric and land components of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL’s) Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) is used with climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to investigate the relative climatic impacts of historical anthropogenic land cover change (LCC)...

  • Benefits of Global Warming. Singer, S. Fred // Society;Mar/Apr92, Vol. 29 Issue 3, p33 

    This article explores the potential benefits of global warming. One should perhaps recall that only a decade ago, when climate cooling was a looming issue, a U.S. government study calculated a huge national cost associated with such cooling. More to the point perhaps, actual climate cooling,...

  • Global warming: How skepticism became denial. Weart, Spencer // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists;Jan2011, Vol. 67 Issue 1, p41 

    The conversation on global warming started in 1896, when a physical chemist estimated that the mean global temperature would rise several degrees if the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was doubled. The topic eventually became one of the most passionate in the history of science. The...

  • The Serpent's Egg: Stagecraft behind Global Warming Alarmism. Thomas, Tony // Quadrant Magazine;May2012, Vol. 56 Issue 5, p20 

    The article looks into reports on the global warming crisis from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC reports recognize serious flaws and limitations of climate models. They envision that natural climate variability will fill up man-made global warming effects and...

  • The Truth About Global Warming.  // Know Your World Extra;3/7/2008, Vol. 41 Issue 10, p6 

    The article presents information about global warming. It is forecast that in 100 years, the Earth's average temperature will rise 2 to 6 degrees, and this is all it takes to damage the environment. Climate change causes ice caps to melt, which results to flooding in some areas, ruin crops, and...

  • Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change. Collins, Matthew; Booth, Ben B. B.; Harris, Glen R.; Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Webb, Mark J. // Climate Dynamics;Sep2006, Vol. 27 Issue 2/3, p127 

    Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new approach in which modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics