TITLE

Hope Springs Eternal – French Bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915–1919)

AUTHOR(S)
Oosterlinck, Kim; Landon-Lane, John S.
PUB. DATE
December 2006
SOURCE
Review of Finance;Dec2006, Vol. 10 Issue 4, p507
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Repudiations rarely occur due to their extreme nature. This paper provides an empirical study based on an original database: prices of a Tsarist bond traded in Paris before and after its repudiation by the Soviets. A structural VAR is used to disentangle French market shocks from repudiation specific ones. After the repudiation, we identify shocks that are related with bailouts, hopes of partial bailouts, negotiations with the Soviets and the Russian civil war. We argue that bond prices essentially reflected expected extreme events that never took place and were thus subject to a “Peso problem”.
ACCESSION #
23322070

 

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