TITLE

Performance of National Weather Service Forecasts Compared to Operational, Consensus, and Weighted Model Output Statistics

AUTHOR(S)
Baars, Jeffrey A.; Mass, Clifford F.
PUB. DATE
December 2005
SOURCE
Weather & Forecasting;Dec2005, Vol. 20 Issue 6, p1034
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Model output statistics (MOS) guidance has been the central model postprocessing approach used by the National Weather Service since the 1970s. A recent advancement in the use of MOS is the application of “consensus” MOS (CMOS), an average of MOS from two or more models. CMOS has shown additional skill over individual MOS forecasts and has performed well compared to humans in forecasting contests. This study compares MOS, CMOS, and WMOS (weighting component MOS predictions by their past performance) forecasts of temperature and precipitation to those of the National Weather Service (NWS) subjective forecasts. Data from 29 locations throughout the United States from 1 August 2003 through 1 August 2004 are used. MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GMOS), Eta (EMOS), and Nested Grid Model (NMOS) models are included, with CMOS being a simple average of these three forecasts. WMOS is calculated using weights determined from a minimum variance method, with varying training periods for each station and variable. Performance is analyzed at various forecast periods, by region of the United States, and by time/season, as well as for periods of large daily temperature changes or large departures from climatology. The results show that CMOS is competitive or superior to human forecasts at nearly all locations and that WMOS is superior to CMOS. Human forecasts are most skillful compared to MOS during the first forecast day and for periods when temperatures differ greatly from climatology. The implications of these results regarding the future role of human forecasters are examined in the conclusions.
ACCESSION #
19849802

 

Related Articles

  • TRANSFERABILITY INTERCOMPARISON. Take, E. S.; Roads, J.; Rockel, B.; Gutowski Jr., W. J.; Arritt, R. W.; Meinke, I.; Jones, C. G.; Zadra, A. // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;Mar2007, Vol. 88 Issue 3, p375 

    The article reports on transferability intercomparison, an opportunity for new idea on global water cycle and energy budget. It is emphasized that water and associated energy cycles introduce nonlinear and exponential processes that create difficulties for observing and predicting climate...

  • Policy needs robust climate science. Patrinos, Aristides; Bamzai, Anjuli // Nature;11/17/2005, Vol. 438 Issue 7066, p285 

    Discusses the effects of the changes in global and regional climates on the development of cultures and civilizations. Predictions of regional climate change; Provision of stakeholders and policy makers with the scientific knowledge they need to manage the risks and opportunities of climate...

  • Weather Eye.  // Air Traffic Management;Spring2014, Issue 1, p50 

    The article discusses the development of TOPMET demonstration advanced meteorological services for weather systems which aimed to provide a more accurate weather forecasting. It states that the TOPMET demonstration gather together the seven European partners that will incorporate expertise of...

  • Climate-change science programme 'lacks impact'.  // Nature;9/20/2007, Vol. 449 Issue 7160, p271 

    The article presents an analysis on the climate change-related federal research in the U.S. Such research is believed to have a long way to go in informing the U.S. policy decisions due to bureaucratic delays, despite spending $1.7 billion annually. A panel that has convened by the U.S. National...

  • Untitled.  // America;2/3/1912, Vol. 6 Issue 17, p404 

    The article focuses on weather forecasting during 1912. According to the article, the director of the Washington Weather Bureau has defended the Bureau and presented a very high figure that represents the percentage of forecasts which for a certain period came true. It adds that the scientific...

  • Temperature trends in Japan: 1900-1996. S. Yue; M. Hashino // Theoretical & Applied Climatology;2003, Vol. 75 Issue 1-2, p15 

    summary¶long-term trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly mean temperature (abbreviated as amt, smt, mmt, respectively) in japan are investigated. the magnitude of a trend is measured by assuming it to be linear. the statistical significance of a site trend is assessed by the mann-kendall...

  • THE DARK ISLAND. Foroohar, Rana // Newsweek (Pacific Edition);7/9/2001 (Pacific Edition), Vol. 138 Issue 2, p34 

    Reports on weather conditions in Great Britain. Heavy rain that has resulted in flooding; Recent rainfall the heaviest since meteorological records began in Great Britain; Belief that global warming is the culprit; How global warming could effect people living in southern Britain and the Rhine...

  • THE DARK ISLAND. Foroohar, Rana // Newsweek (Atlantic Edition);7/9/2001 (Atlantic Edition), Vol. 138 Issue 2, p38 

    Reports on weather conditions in Great Britain. The heavy rain that has resulted in flooding; Recent rainfall the heaviest since meteorological records began in Great Britain; Belief that global warming is the culprit; How global warming could effect people living in southern Britain and the...

  • World weather.  // Travel Weekly: The Choice of Travel Professionals;12/17/2004, Issue 1750, p67 

    This article presents statistics related to weather forecasting of several cities and towns in the world. Maximum and minimum temperatures have been mentioned in the article. Some of the places included are Barbados, Bangkok, Bermuda, Chicago, Johannesburg, Los Angeles, etc.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics