Detection of Regional Surface Temperature Trends

Karoly, David J.; Wu, Qigang
November 2005
Journal of Climate;Nov2005, Vol. 18 Issue 21, p4337
Academic Journal
Trends in surface temperature over the last 100, 50, and 30 yr at individual grid boxes in a 5° latitude–longitude grid are compared with model estimates of the natural internal variability of these trends and with the model response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Three different climate models are used to provide estimates of the internal variability of trends, one of which appears to overestimate the observed variability of surface temperature at interannual and 5-yr time scales. Significant warming trends are found at a large fraction of the individual grid boxes over the globe, a much larger fraction than can be explained by internal climate variations. The observed warming trends over the last 50 and 30 yr are consistent with the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in most of the models. However, in some regions, the observed century-scale trends are significantly larger than the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Warming trends consistent with the response to anthropogenic forcing are detected at scales on the order of 500 km in many regions of the globe.


Related Articles

  • A Multimodel Update on the Detection and Attribution of Global Surface Warming. Stone, Dáithí A.; Allen, Myles R.; Stott, Peter A. // Journal of Climate;Feb2007, Vol. 20 Issue 3, p517 

    This paper presents an update on the detection and attribution of global annual mean surface air temperature changes, using recently developed climate models. In particular, it applies a new methodology that permits the inclusion of many more general circulation models (GCMs) into the analysis,...

  • The Investigation of Green Roof and White Roof Cooling Potential on Single Storey Residential Building in the Malaysian Climate. Ismail, Asmat; Samad, Muna Hanim Abdul; Rahman, Abdul Malek Abdul // World Academy of Science, Engineering & Technology;Apr2011, Issue 52, p129 

    The phenomenon of global warming or climate -- change has led to many environmental issues including higher atmospheric temperatures, intense precipitation, increased greenhouse gaseous emissions and increased indoor discomfort. Studies have shown that bringing nature to the roof such as...

  • Mechanisms Affecting the Overturning Response in Global Warming Simulations. Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J. // Journal of Climate;Dec2005, Vol. 18 Issue 23, p4925 

    Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas...

  • Climate change. Stranks, Jeremy // A-Z of the Environment;2008, p71 

    Information about climate change is presented. Considering its environment treat to the planet, climate change is referred to the average weather experienced over a long period of time, including temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. Moreover, implications of climate change is also mentioned,...

  • 'Alternative futures' of the Okavango Delta simulated by a suite of global climate and hydro-ecological models. Wolski, P.; Murray-Hudson, M. // Water SA;Oct2008, Vol. 34 Issue 5, p605 

    The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and...

  • Global Warming: Guide to Critical Analysis.  // Points of View: Global Warming;6/30/2019, p4 

    This article offers a critical guide to the controversial issue of global warming. The article discusses criteria in understanding the issue, such as distinguishing between fact and opinion and recognizing point and counterpoint arguments. Also presented are exercises that help the reader...

  • Changes of Variability in Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part I: Temperature. Stouffer, R. J.; Wetherald, R. T. // Journal of Climate;Nov2007, Vol. 20 Issue 21, p5455 

    This study documents the temperature variance change in two different versions of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model forced with estimates of future increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations. The variance changes are examined using an ensemble of 8...

  • The Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Using an Ensemble of Opportunity. Stone, Dáithí A.; Allen, Myles R.; Selten, Frank; Kliphuis, Michael; Stott, Peter A. // Journal of Climate;Feb2007, Vol. 20 Issue 3, p504 

    The detection and attribution of climate change in the observed record play a central role in synthesizing knowledge of the climate system. Unfortunately, the traditional method for detecting and attributing changes due to multiple forcings requires large numbers of general circulation model...

  • Attribution of Recent Temperature Changes in the Australian Region. Karoly, David J.; Braganza, Karl // Journal of Climate;Feb2005, Vol. 18 Issue 3, p457 

    Variations of Australian-average mean temperature and diurnal temperature range over the twentieth century are investigated. The observed interannual variability of both is simulated reasonably well by a number of climate models, but they do not simulate the observed relationship between the...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics