TITLE

The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics

AUTHOR(S)
Walker, N.; Stover, J.; Sthnecki, K.; Zaniewsk, A. E.; Grassly, N. C.; Garcia-Calleja, J. M.; Ghys, P. D.
PUB. DATE
August 2004
SOURCE
Sexually Transmitted Infections;Aug2004 Supplement 1, Vol. 80, pi10
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term protections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.
ACCESSION #
14256985

 

Related Articles

  • Report of the Workgroup on Epidemiology and Surveillance.  // Public Health Reports;Nov/Dec88 Supplement, Vol. 103, p10 

    The article presents the epidemiology and surveillance of the HIV epidemic by the Public Health Services. The organization strengthened its commitment to continue to promote the confidential reporting of AIDS cases. Conducting and evaluating seroprevalence surveys is to be done to enhance...

  • A global analysis of trends in the quality of HIV sero-surveillance. Garcia-Calleja, J. M.; Zaniewski, E.; Ghys, P. D.; Stanecki, K.; Walker, N. // Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health;Nov2004, Vol. 58 Issue 11, p893 

    Objective: To examine the quality of HIV sero-surveillance systems in Countries by 2002, as well as trends between 1995 and 2002. Methods: The quality of countries' surveillance systems was scored for five years: 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2002. Sero-surveillance data were Compiled from the US...

  • Epidemiological characteristics of HIV/AIDS in west China. Zhi Hu; Xia Qin; Min-Zhen Zhu; Sen Yang; Xue-Jun Zhang // International Journal of STD & AIDS;May2006, Vol. 17 Issue 5, p324 

    China is facing a major crisis because of the increasing epidemic of HIV/AIDS, especially in the western areas. The purpose of this paper is to enhance understanding of the crisis by analysing the published literature on the epidemiology, demographic features, routes of infection, and risk...

  • AIDS and Africa - when will the epidemic level off. L�yt�nen, Markku // Fennia;2003, Vol. 181 Issue 1, p1 

    Discusses the epidemic of AIDS and HIV infection in Africa. Spread of the epidemic worldwide; Percentage of populations in subSaharan African countries that are infected of HIV; Importance of reliable statistics on the spread of AIDS and HIV infections in planning and modelling on when the...

  • HIV/AIDS.  // Background Notes on Countries of the World: South Africa;Jun2005, p9 

    Provides information on the increasing number of HIV/AIDS cases in South Africa. Percentage of the 15-49 year old population infected by HIV in the country; Estimated number of new infections that occur each day in South Africa; Cost of the epidemic by 2010; Sectors that will be severely...

  • Epidemiologic trends of HIV/AIDS in Jamaica. Olukoga, Idowu A. // Revista Panamericana de Salud Publica;May2004, Vol. 15 Issue 5, p358 

    Offers a look at the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in Jamaica from 1982 to 2001. Age group with HIV/AIDS infections; Geographic distribution of HIV/AIDS epidemics; Determinants of the epidemic.

  • Poverty, Sex and HIV. Nattrass, Nicoli // AIDS & Behavior;Oct2009, Vol. 13 Issue 5, p833 

    There is an ongoing debate about the relative importance of economic factors (notably poverty) and sexual behavior in driving the AIDS epidemic. This paper draws on relevant research and cross-country regression analysis to argue that the impact of economic determinants is dwarfed by contextual...

  • Modeling the HIV Epidemic in Africa.  // PLoS Medicine;Jan2005, Vol. 2 Issue 1, p4 

    Presents information on the HIV epidemic in Africa. Prevalence of HIV and AIDS in 2004; Significance of concentrating on the prevention of the disease to the decrease of yearly infections; Challenges to the development of policies for the prevention of HIV and AIDS.

  • Comparison of Projected and Actual Outcomes of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Malawi, 1990-2000. Rajan, Suja S.; Sokal, David C. // PLoS ONE;2009, Vol. 4 Issue 8, p1 

    Background: In 1992 Liomba et al used HIV-AIDS prevalence data from 1980 to 1990 and projected the adult HIV prevalence and the impact of AIDS for the years 1991 to 2000, under high and low HIV incidence scenarios, using EpiModel, DemProj and the AIDS Impact Model. This report compares the...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics