Current status and future forecasting of biofuels technology development

Dehghani Madvar, Mohammad; Aslani, Alireza; Ahmadi, Mohammad Hossein; Karbalaie Ghomi, Narjes Sadat
March 2019
International Journal of Energy Research;Mar2019, Vol. 43 Issue 3, p1142
Academic Journal
Summary: Over the last few decades, the significant increase in energy demand followed by increasing fossil fuels depletion convinced countries authority to choose renewable energy to satisfy demand. Therefore, global enthusiasm in renewable energy such as bioenergy technology is increased. Is biofuels technology ready to address the global demand for energy? Investigating in technology development can answer. In this paper, the current statuses of biofuel technologies are determined. Regarding patent codes, seven technologies are identified, which are CHP turbines for biofeed, gas turbine for biofeed, biodiesel, grain bioethanol, bio‐pyrolysis, torrefaction of biomass, and cellulosic bioethanol. The results of patent investigating show that the biodiesel technology is in the mature status and its technology trend is going to go downward. The others six technologies are in the growth stage. Analysis of 57 619 patents in biofuel technologies for technology forecasting has been done by technology life cycle. The torrefication of biomass technology has started its growth stages and will become mature in 2061. In this research, the S‐curves of all biofuel groups are plotted and maturity phases are forecasted. The biofuel technologies statuses have been investigated. The technology trends and future forecasting analysis through technological life cycle determine that the biodiesel technology is in the maturity phase while torrefaction of biomass is entered to growth phase. The development factors of each seven categorized groups of technology have been investigated by using text analysis at published patents. The key role technology domains that have been considered in patents also are obtained. Technological and chemical domains are extracted through patent analyzing.


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