Mansourov, Alexandre Y.
September 2003
International Journal on World Peace;Sep2003, Vol. 20 Issue 3, p17
Academic Journal
The author argues that Kim Jong Il's game plan in Beijing includes a) treating the Chinese as a pro-American party at the talks, which he approaches as a two against one boxing match; b) giving both the PRC and the United States an advance notice about pending initiation of reprocessing operations; c) tying down Washington at the negotiation table to buy time for a military build-up; d) watching for the "canary in the mine" to die as an early warning signal of an American attack; and e) delegitimizing any U.S. unilateral military action against the North in the eyes of the international community. He further argues that the trilateral talks offer the United States a venue to present a real ultimatum to North Korea in the presence of Chinese witnesses--disarm and open up or else, with China's tacit support. Dr. Mansourov concludes that the Beijing trilateral talks are likely to end up in a spectacular diplomatic disaster and may lead to further escalation of nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula.


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