Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; Roo, Ad; Salamon, Peter; Wyser, Klaus; Feyen, Luc
February 2017
Earth's Future;Feb2017, Vol. 5 Issue 2, p171
Academic Journal
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.


Related Articles

  • Wacky Weather.  // Scholastic SuperScience;Oct2008, Vol. 20 Issue 2, p7 

    The article discusses the environmental effects of global warming.

  • China concerned about climate.  // InTech;Mar2007, Vol. 54 Issue 3, p10 

    The article reports that China's government is re-evaluating an assessment of risks facing the country if nothing is done to reduce global warming. The risks include crop shortages, increasing floods in the rich coastal river deltas and higher energy use to cool off from increasingly warmer...

  • Global Warming? No Sweat.  // Foreign Policy;May/Jun2008, Issue 166, p23 

    The article reports on the study of the researchers from Texas A&M University regarding the attitudes of the Americans on global warming. It reveals that people who are informed about its risks and causes are less alarmed it than the people who are less knowledgeable on it. These people trust...

  • AND ANOTHER THING. Wright, Martin // Green Futures;Jul2007, Issue 65, p52 

    The author reflects on the people's reaction on climate change and global warming. He comments on the survey that shows that between a third and a half of British either don't think climate change is happening, or if it is, it will not affect the humans. He reveals that rainforests were being...

  • Scientists attack Bush over U turn on climate change treaty. Ghazi, Polly // BMJ: British Medical Journal (International Edition);04/07/2001, Vol. 322 Issue 7290, p813 

    Reports that world leaders were joined by health experts in condemning the rejection made by United States President George W. Bush of the Kyoto global climate treaty. Future implications on the global environment should the U.S., the world's greatest polluter, fail to reduce the output of...

  • Análisis de vulnerabilidad y percepción social de las inundaciones en la ciudad de Trelew, Argentina. Ferrari, María Paula // Cuadernos de Geografia;jul-dic2012, Vol. 21 Issue 2, p99 

    The objective of this paper is to analyze indicators of vulnerability in cases of flooding in the Intendente Alfredo Mario Etchepare district of the city of Trelew, Argentina. The study contrasts two diagnoses: on the one hand, the technical-scientific diagnosis resulting from bibliographic...

  • Floods of Switzerland Over the Past Five Centuries.  // CO2 Science;12/29/2010, Vol. 13 Issue 52, Special Section p1 

    The article discusses a study conducted Schmocker-Fackel et al. to determine whether frequent flooding in northern Switzerland is a consequence of global warming.

  • Global Warming: A Public Health Concern. Afzal, Brenda M. // Online Journal of Issues in Nursing;2007, Vol. 12 Issue 2, p2 

    Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1Fahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is...

  • GLOBAL WARMING AND CARBON-NEGATIVE TECHNOLOGY: PROSPECTS FOR A LOWER-COST ROUTE TO A LOWER RISK ATMOSPHERE. Eisenberger, Peter M.; Cohen, Roger W.; Chichilnisky, Graciela; Eisenberger, Nicholas M.; Chance, Ronald R.; Jones, Christopher W. // Energy & Environment;2009, Vol. 20 Issue 6, p973 

    Aggressive efficiency improvements and a shift away from fossil fuels cannot offset climate change threats. This realization creates an imperative for 'carbon-negative' mitigation measures; that is, measures that can reduce atmospheric carbon faster than emissions will load the atmosphere. Among...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics