TITLE

Modeling the HIV epidemic in Novgorod region, Russia

AUTHOR(S)
Azovtseva, O. V.; Arkhipov, G. S.; Arkhipova, E. I.; Smirnov, A. V.; Fishman, B. B.
PUB. DATE
November 2016
SOURCE
Australasian Medical Journal;2016, Vol. 9 Issue 11, p422
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is design for predicting the epidemic process and to improve preventive measures, clinical examination and treatment of HIV-infected patients at both the regional and national level. Morbidity indicators for the last 25 years were studied; prevailing ways of transmission, age pattern, and main causes of death among HIV-infected persons. A comparative analysis of morbidity was carried out. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to analyse obtained data statistically. The significance of "clinical outcomes" was assessed by analysing confidence indexes of frequency distribution by the x2 test with Fisher's angular transformation or the Mantel-Haenszel test. The sequential recognition procedure by Bayes' method was used as the basis for mathematical modelling. There are observed the declining role of transmission through injection and the increasing role of sexual transmission. HIV is diagnosed most frequently in young people aged 15-30. However, an increased morbidity rate of older people has been discovered during the last 2-3 years. The mathematical modelling of the epidemiological situation discovered that this infection spreading among the socially safe population against the backdrop of intensifying sexual transmission, accompanied by a rising female morbidity rate and the percentage of children born by HIV-infected mothers. Obtained results substantiate the need for a unified personalized registration system for HIV-infected individuals, which would include information about the scope and effectiveness of treatment, diagnostic, preventive, and rehabilitation measures that were taken when providing medical and social assistance to this category of patients.
ACCESSION #
119961135

 

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