TITLE

Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

AUTHOR(S)
Kodera, Yuki; Saitou, Jun; Hayashimoto, Naoki; Adachi, Shimpei; Morimoto, Masahiko; Nishimae, Yuji; Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki
PUB. DATE
December 2016
SOURCE
Earth, Planets & Space;12/2/2016, Vol. 68 Issue 1, p1
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Kumamoto earthquake sequence) is an extremely high-seismicity event that has been occurring across Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Japan since April 14, 2016 (JST). The earthquake early warning system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued warnings for 19 events in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence from April 14 to 19, under some of the heaviest loading conditions since the system began operating in 2007. We analyzed the system performance for cases where a warning was issued and/or strong motion was actually observed. The results indicated that the system exhibited remarkable performance, especially for the most destructive earthquakes in the Kumamoto earthquake sequence. In addition, the system did not miss or seriously under-predict strong motion of any large earthquake from April 14 to 30. However, in four cases, the system issued over-predicted warnings due to the simultaneous occurrence of small earthquakes within a short distance, which implies a fundamental obstacle in trigger-data classifications based solely on arrival time. We also performed simulations using the integrated particle filter (IPF) and propagation of local undamped motion (PLUM) methods, which JMA plans to implement to address over-prediction for multiple simultaneous earthquakes and under-prediction for massive earthquakes with large rupture zones. The simulation results of the IPF method indicated that the IPF method is highly effective at minimizing over-prediction even for multiple simultaneous earthquakes within a short distance, since it adopts a trigger-data classification using velocity amplitude and hypocenter determinations using not-yet-arrived data. The simulation results of the PLUM method demonstrated that the PLUM method is capable of issuing warnings for destructive inland earthquakes more rapidly than the current system owing to the use of additional seismometers that can only be incorporated by this method.
ACCESSION #
119882328

 

Related Articles

  • Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model. Sayil, Nilgün // Acta Geophysica;Apr2013, Vol. 61 Issue 2, p338 

    In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordinates of 39°-42°N, 25°-32°E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional...

  • Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment. Kossobokov, Vladimir // Natural Hazards;Nov2013, Vol. 69 Issue 2, p1155 

    Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very...

  • Bayesian Hierarchical Space�time Modeling of Earthquake Data. Natvig, Bent; Tvete, Ingunn // Methodology & Computing in Applied Probability;Mar2007, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p89 

    Stochastic earthquake models are often based on a marked point process approach as for instance presented in Vere-Jones ( Int. J. Forecast., 11:503�538, ). This gives a fine resolution both in space and time making it possible to represent each earthquake. However, it is not obvious that...

  • Hot/Cold Spots in Italian Macroseismic Data. Molchan, G.; Kronrod, T.; Panza, G. // Pure & Applied Geophysics;Mar2011, Vol. 168 Issue 3/4, p739 

    Site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an attempt to see in the macroseismic data of Italy some other effects, namely, hot/cold spots in the terminology of O lsen...

  • More Quakes to Come. Luntz, Stephen // Australasian Science;May2005, Vol. 26 Issue 4, p5 

    Reports on the possible earthquake incidents between the Indonesia-Australian and Asian plates according to doctor Wouter Schellart of the Australian National University's Research School of Earth Sciences. Percentage of force generated by the subduction of the Indian Ocean which is directed...

  • A Novel Method for Detection of Seismic Dual-Zones with Application to Earthquake Forecasting. Bali-Lashak, Aref; Zare, Mehdi; Andalib, Arash; Pourbadakhsh, Kazem; Radan, Yaser // Journal of Seismology & Earthquake Engineering;2012, Vol. 14 Issue 1, p1 

    In this paper, we introduce a new approach to prepare the forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes higher than a threshold level. This method can recognize the world's dual seismicity zones, where an earthquake in one zone acts as a precursor to other events in some other zone(s). To do so, we...

  • Recognition of earthquake-prone areas: Methodology and analysis of the results. Soloviev, A.; Gvishiani, A.; Gorshkov, A.; Dobrovolsky, M.; Novikova, O. // Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth;Mar2014, Vol. 50 Issue 2, p151 

    We present the results of verifying the areas that were detected as prone to strong earthquakes by the pattern recognition algorithms in different regions of the world with different levels of seismicity and, therefore, different threshold magnitudes demarcating the strong earthquakes. The...

  • One year of rst based satellite thermal monitoring over two Italian seismic areas. TRAMUTOLI, V.; CORRADO, R.; FILIZZOLA, C.; GENZANO, N.; LISI, M.; PACIELLO, R.; PERGOLA, N. // Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata;Jun2015, Vol. 56 Issue 2, p275 

    In this study, Earth's emitted Thermal InfraRed (TIR) radiation measured from geostationary satellite sensors has been analyzed by using an original data analysis approach in order to evaluate possible space-time correlation with earthquakes (M=4.0) occurrence. A clear definition of SSTA...

  • Erratum to: Seismic fragility assessment of SMA-bar restrained multi-span continuous highway bridge isolated by different laminated rubber bearings in medium to strong seismic risk zones. Alam, M.; Bhuiyan, M.; Billah, A. // Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering;Dec2012, Vol. 10 Issue 6, p1911 

    A correction to the article "Seismic fragility assessment of SMA-bar restrained multi-span continuous highway bridge isolated by different laminated rubber bearings in medium to strong seismic risk zones" that was published in the October 20, 2012 issue is presented.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics