Global threats

Kern, David
February 2003
Accountancy;Feb2003, Vol. 131 Issue 1314, p79
Trade Publication
The author in this article argues that though the global economy faces serious danger, a recession will be avoided. The world's major stock markets showed the third consecutive year of annual declines in 2002. The critical uncertainties continue to center on the U.S. Although the U.S. growth was stronger than in Japan and Euroland in 2002, and this pattern is set to continue in 2003, there is renewed unease over whether the huge U.S. imbalances can be corrected without any major influence. One key uncertainty is whether the over-indebted U.S. consumer will be able to continue spending until businesses are ready to start investing. Euroland growth is forecast to remain feeble. In Japan, the deep recession is ending. But the economy is set to stay weak, suffering from deflation, excessive debt in its banking and corporate sectors, and a rapidly aging population. Economic dominance of the U.S. and the world's reliance on the U.S. will increase further.


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